Defecting Black Vote Spells Big Trouble for Democrats

Defecting Black Vote Spells Big Trouble for Democrats

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It’s no overstatement to say that Barack Obama would not be president if Latino and especially black voters had not turned the 2008 election into a holy crusade—not an election, in the traditional sense, but a holy crusade. That bears repeating because minority voters do not decide presidential elections. White voters do. But 2008 was the exception, solely because Latinos and blacks saw an Obama White House as the fulfillment of the American racial dream.

It took barely two years for that dream to come unraveled. The newest Gallup poll found that black voters are poised to desert the voting booth en masse in November. By a nearly 2 to 1 gap, whites are more likely to say that they are thinking about the November elections than blacks. This divide is far greater than the typical white-versus-minority voter participation gap found in recent midterm elections.

The wide racial gap can’t be chalked up to the standard midterm election malaise that affects a wide segment of voters, no matter their race. Polls consistently show that GOP-leaning voters, the overwhelming majority of them white, are more revved up by the November elections than blacks. They sniff political blood, namely the Democrats’ and by extension, President Obama’s. They see the election as a referendum on the president and his policies. The passion to nail Democrats is driven by a mix of disgust, fear, rumor, innuendo, disinformation, racial and religious bigotry, and plain ignorance.

That’s much less important, though, than a look at the number of voters who could defect and how their defection will politically savage Democratic incumbents and candidates. A GOP House takeover would effectively stymie, even cripple, Obama legislation and political initiatives in the run-up to the 2012 election.

In 2008, Latinos voted in bigger numbers and in higher percentages for Obama than they had for Democratic presidential loser John Kerry in 2004. Their vote helped seal the win for Obama in Florida, New Mexico and Colorado. Bush won Colorado and Florida in 2000 and all three states in 2004. If Obama had lost both states, he still might have beaten Republican rival John McCain. But the operative word is a very shaky “might.”

Pennsylvania, Ohio, and arguably North Carolina were the must-win states. Bush won two of the three states in 2000 and 2004 and cinched the White House. This time Obama won all three. If he had lost Pennsylvania or Ohio, the outcome might have been far different. Blacks make up 20 to 30 percent of the vote in those three states. They gave Obama the crucial edge there.

The more than 15 million black voters made up more than 20 percent of the overall Democratic vote in 2008. They gave Obama 96 percent of their vote. This was an all-time high for a Democratic presidential candidate.

A Gallup poll in late July gave a small but ominous hint that there was a slight cooling by black voters to the Obama presidency. It found Obama’s job approval rating at 85 percent among black Americans, down from a 94 percent four months earlier.

The nearly 10-percentage-point dropoff in Obama support came on the heels of his quickly admitted blunder in dumping Shirley Sherrod from her post at the Department of Agriculture. Then there was the private, and occasionally public, grousing by the Congressional Black Caucus that Obama and the Democrats aren’t saying and doing enough about the mountainous job and education crisis among young blacks. There was the ethics scandals involving veteran Congressional Black Caucus members Harlem Democrat Charles Rangel and California Democrat Maxine Waters. There was frustration at Obama and the Democrats for not hitting back hard at the GOP for its relentless attacks on his initiatives and its borderline racist slurs against the administration. There was the mounting national trauma over the economy’s slide.

The black vote has been the Democrats’ trump card in every election for the past half century, win or lose. Black-voter support has been fixed in the mid-80s percent for all Democratic presidential candidates during those decades. Even when Democratic presidential candidates lost, the relatively solid black vote has been enough to keep them competitive in many parts of the country, and equally important, it has given many Democratic state and congressional candidates their margin of victory in close races.

Democrats have been repeatedly rapped for plantationism—that is, for taking the black vote for granted and offering little tangible benefits in return for African Americans’ unyielding support. That’s not a fair knock. Many Democrats and Obama have fought hard against the GOP onslaught on health care and financial reform, on extending unemployment benefits, on passing a jobs bill. But if black voters feel the Democrats and Obama haven’t foughgt hard enough and stay home from the polls in the droves that polls suggest they might, it will spell big trouble for the party that won big in 2008.


Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. He hosts a nationally broadcast political affairs radio talk show on Pacifica and KTYM Radio Los Angeles. Follow Earl Ofari Hutchinson on Twitter: http://twitter.com/earlhutchinson


 

Comments

 
Thuso

Posted Sep 6 2010

Earl, I agree with your analysis. However, I think that thought leaders and analysts like yourself should offer a follow-on "what if analysis."

What if Black voters stay home in droves, and the President is left with a Republican majority?
What if the early gains of the Obama administration are reversed?
What if the Democrats retain the majorities they have, and the current trajectory of recovery continues?

While off-year elections are traditionally characterized by low turnout, it is critically important for those who are more negatively impacted to also consider the alternatives. They can assume the Republican tactic of doing nothing, and allow any advantage they have gained to evaporate. They can become the voters who said "No" and suffer the consequences of a return to Republican policies. Or they can wake up to the reality of how difficult it is to govern in the face of the Republican opposition, and support the retention of Democrative majorities in both houses of Congress.

For those who think that Democratic candidates have taken the black vote for granted, they should consider the alternatives. They can give the Republicans control by staying home, and it will be just as devastating as if they voted Republican. I would hope that the unprecedented support in the 2008 elections were a sign of a maturing Black electorate, which, in combination with the Latino vote, can set a new trajectory away from the trickle down policies of the Republican leadership that destroyed the Black middle class, and created the current crisis.

In addition to hope, I encourage Black supporters of the Democratic party to show some critical thinking and resolve to stay the course that the Presidnet has set, and become the force to be reckoned with that they can be. I am still committed to change we can believe in. I will be knocking on doors to persuade others to join me in voting for Democratic representatives in the next election.

Anonymous

Posted Sep 8 2010

The President has set exactly the wrong course for the country and Democrats will pay for his indulgence.

Anonymous

Posted Sep 8 2010

We need to do away with the whole antiquated two party system. We need to vote in some public servants and get rid of politicians. My vote is for lower taxes, less government, an end to foreign aid and the interference from the UN and an end to illegal immigration. I'll be choosing my candidate wisely.

Anonymous

Posted Sep 8 2010

Thuso says it all. Way to go!!!

Anonymous

Posted Sep 8 2010

Thuso says it all. Way to go!!!

Anonymous

Posted Sep 9 2010

BIRTHER RALLY October 23rd in Washington, DC info at obamacrimes.com
From the European Union Times May 31st, 2010 Foreign Ministry reports circulating in the Kremlin today are warning that an already explosive situation in the United States is about to get a whole lot worse as a new law put forth by President Obama is said capable of seeing up to 500,000 American citizens jailed for the crime of opposing their government.
Sparking the concern of Russian diplomats over the growing totalitarian bent of the Obama government is the planned reintroduction of what these reports call one of the most draconian laws ever introduced in a free society that is titled “The Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act”.
First introduced in the US Congress in 2007 by Democratic Representative Jane Harmon, this new law passed the US House of Representatives by a secretive voice vote, but failed to pass the US Senate, after which it was believed dead until this past week when it was embraced by Obama who became the first American President to name his own citizens as a threat to his Nations security.
Please peruse birtherreport.com also

Anonymous

Posted Oct 3 2010

do african americans know and understand or even care how they are being used and abused by obama administration ??? will they really allow themselves to go over the cliff for obama and his pals?? come on I know a lot of very intelligent African americans who hate obama and want nothing to do with him and his pals in washington I just really want to know how many are drinking the obama kool aid?? I feel so bad for them do they know what is being done to them? what do they think they are getting from obama ?? I don't understand obama is cutting their free stuff do they see that coming?? I don't get how the color of that man's skin is more powerful than their own lives.do they realize that is what is at steak not a democrate/or repbulican lable it's so past party crap it is about our coountry being destroyed the only ones left will be the elitle ruleing class that is all.babies,the old, the sick,the drug affliticed,the undesirables no matter the color of the skin or goverment party will all be done away with under this obama.blacks & hispanics included.

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